PELLUCIDE: FEB. OTR: MEASURING THE COVID TIDAL RECESSION

’22 Two months later: Is the Covid surge leveling off or receding?

You know you have analyst DNA when you look forward to seeing the previous month’s results a few days after the calendar change. We have long had the ability to make the weather impact “call” the day after the month close and now, with the introduction last year and continued expansion of the Golf Market Research Center (GMRC) and one-time submissions from our subscribers, we have visibility into Golf Revenue (GRev), rounds, RevpAR and usage soon after. This gives us faster and broader visibility on the above issue than anyone else in the industry and has interested external investment entities (PE&VC) as well as buying entities from corporate courses pursuing golf as a “momentum” game. At some point in the future, we anticipate that the broad coalition of industry stakeholders will catch up with the need and value of this information and insights (more on that later).

In this issue, I’ll be looking at the January-February 22 results for several of the metrics on our Key Performance Indicator (KPI) dashboard and what they tell us about whether the COVID round wave has peaked. and, if so, if it appears to be leveling off at a new high water mark or receding:

  • Golf Revenue – Surged in February, making up for a poor start in January. This translates to a year-to-date (YtD) ‘offset’ of -4% vs. ’21; retreating slightly each month from the surge of COVID
  • Cycles – Tracked GRev pattern, up in most recent month, recouping most of January shortfall, leading to February YtD “offset” of -3% from 21, also pulling back slightly
  • KPI Scorecard – brings the weather component (usage and RevpAR) which shows us that the “unadjusted” metrics above are slightly artificially supported by better weather down 6 pts and -9% respectively over 2 months

For our subscribers, we’ll cover the actual numbers and more details on the above metrics and show what the monthly industry performance summary dashboard looks like. For our executive summary, non-owner/operator readers, consider this an invitation to subscribe to Pellucid Publications membership for a modest investment of $495/year (or you can now subscribe to the $45/year payment plan). months) and you’ll get to see this monthly moving forward with the State of the Industry, Outside the Ropes and Nat’l/Reg’l/Mkt monthly weather impact.

For all of our owner/operator readers, you can see all of these metrics immediately at the end of each month by joining our happy little group of GMRC subscribers who want one-page comparison reports, weather-adjusted views, and their golf revenue trends and round data as well as historical weather impact and 60-day forecast capacity rounds specific to your course/weather station. More information can be obtained here and we would be happy to provide references from one or more of our satisfied participants if needed to make the decision.

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